比特币近期的价格复苏面临严峻考验，链上数据显示基本面需求严重疲软。 According to analyst Darkfost of CryptoQuant, a key metric tracking Bitcoin's apparent demand has plummeted to its most bearish level since the beginning of 2026.
Darkfost, sharing analysis on X, highlighted that the "Bitcoin Apparent Demand" metric, measured on a 30-day sum basis, has plunged deep into negative territory.该分析师指出，该指标目前已接近负 147,000 BTC。
“比特币的表观需求刚刚达到今年年初以来的最低水平，”Darkfost 表示。 "With an estimate now approaching -147,000 BTC, we have to go back to December 2025 to find market sentiment this bearish."
The chart illustrates a stark transition for Bitcoin, showing strong positive demand readings in mid-2025 giving way to prolonged negative periods in late 2025 and again in 2026. The latest drop is particularly concerning because it coincides with Bitcoin's price rebound from its early-2026 lows, indicating the price recovery lacks support from robust spot market accumulation.
Darkfost explained that Apparent Demand is calculated as "the difference between new BTC issuance and the amount of supply that has remained inactive for more than one year."它有效地衡量长期持有者积累是否足以吸收通过发行进入市场的新比特币。
The persistently negative reading suggests a critical problem: the underlying spot market may not be strong enough to provide a stable foundation for the current rally. Darkfost argues that while futures market activity can drive short-term price momentum and liquidations, it cannot substitute for genuine spot demand needed for a sustainable bullish phase.
“这一事态发展表明需求继续逐渐收缩，”达克弗斯特说。 "Without a meaningful recovery in spot demand, it becomes difficult to imagine Bitcoin sustaining a durable rally purely through the momentum driven by futures markets."
不过，分析师也为长期投资者提供了一个观点。从历史上看，需求极度悲观的时期常常为耐心的市场参与者提供战略性购买机会。
"That said, even if this situation appears relatively bearish in the short term, these types of environments have historically also created interesting opportunities for long term investors capable of remaining patient," Darkfost wrote.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $77,300, as the market watches to see if spot demand can strengthen to support higher price levels.