Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. report a notable shift in investor behavior, with capital flowing out of both bitcoin and gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over the past two weeks. The trend signals a potential "cooling" of the so-called debasement trade, which may be linked to growing market anticipation of a deal between Iran and the United States.
In a report led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the analysts noted that bitcoin ETFs have experienced larger outflows compared to gold ETFs.他们将这一走势解释为广大投资者从贬值交易中撤退的一部分，而不是从比特币转向黄金。 The debasement trade involves investors purchasing assets like bitcoin (BTC) and gold as hedges against geopolitical instability, fiat currency weakness, inflation, and related economic concerns.
"These outflows appear more consistent with a broad retreat by investors from the debasement trade, potentially in anticipation of an Iran-U.S. deal," the JPMorgan team stated.
同样的模式在期货市场也很明显，机构投资者最近几周减少了对这两种资产的敞口。 The analysts pointed out that bitcoin futures saw a more pronounced pullback, attributing it to bitcoin having become "one of the main expressions of that trade since the start of the Iran conflict."
JPMorgan's momentum signal framework further supports this view, indicating weakening positioning from momentum-focused traders such as commodity trading advisors (CTAs). The analysts observed that positioning buildup from these traders lost momentum in both bitcoin and gold over the past one to two weeks, reinforcing the notion of a broader cooling in the trade.
这一转变标志着早期趋势的逆转。 Until recently, bitcoin had been outperforming gold within the debasement trade following the Iran conflict, with bitcoin ETFs attracting inflows while gold ETFs struggled to recover from earlier outflows.
Amid the weakening sentiment, major bitcoin ETFs have begun to see significant outflows.例如，贝莱德 (BlackRock) 的 IBIT 比特币 ETF 周三录得 5.278 亿美元的资金流出，这是自推出以来的第二大单日资金流出。 Overall, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs registered $733.4 million in net outflows on the same day, marking the largest daily outflows since January 29, according to data from SoSoValue.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $72,750, reflecting a decline of nearly 3% over the past 24 hours, as per The Block's bitcoin price page.